Bitcoin Risks 14% Drop as Whales Sell Ahead of Key US Economic Events

Bitcoin Faces Pressure From Bearish Chart Pattern#

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing signs of weakness after failing twice to break above the $66,930–$67,230 resistance zone, raising the risk of a deeper correction this month.

According to TradingView chart data, BTC has formed a double-top pattern, a bearish reversal setup that occurs when price is rejected twice at the same resistance level. The pattern remains unconfirmed but could trigger a 14% decline toward $49,700 if Bitcoin breaks below its neckline between $57,750 and $57,470. Before then, bulls must defend support at $61,080, followed by $59,500. A move back above $67,230 would invalidate the bearish outlook.

Santiment and Glassnode Data Show Selling Pressure Building#

The technical setup is backed by weakening on-chain fundamentals.

Data from Santiment shows Bitcoin whale wallets holding between 10,000 and 100,000 BTC reduced their combined holdings from approximately 2.26 million BTC on August 3 to 2.25 million BTC, suggesting some of the market's largest investors have begun trimming positions rather than accumulating.

At the same time, Glassnode's Hodler Net Position Change metric indicates long-term holders have shifted from accumulation to distribution. Net selling increased from roughly 1,802 BTC on August 2 to around 11,472 BTC by August 4, representing more than a sixfold jump in just two days. The shift suggests experienced investors are taking profits instead of adding exposure.

Jobs Report and Jackson Hole Could Shape Bitcoin's Next Move#

The on-chain weakness comes ahead of two macroeconomic events that have historically moved Bitcoin.

The first is the US nonfarm payrolls report, with economists expecting around 80,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Since 2023, Bitcoin has generally struggled following weaker-than-expected labor market data.

Investors are also watching the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver his first address since taking office in May 2026. Warsh has maintained a hawkish stance focused on inflation, prompting markets to scale back expectations for interest rate cuts.

With both on-chain data and macro risks pointing in the same direction, Bitcoin's ability to hold $61,080 could determine whether the current pullback remains contained or develops into a slide toward $50,000.